On Sep. 2, Basel analyzed inequality effects on the US labor market.
Basel issued working paper on generative AI inequality effects in the US labor market, and how it might complement/substitute human work in 711 occupational categories.
Modelled relationships between cognitive AI capability and job complexity to highlight effects on core and side skills and investigate impact across wage distribution.
Findings
High-wage occupations are more exposed to AI, but usually complements them by handling some side skills, while their core expertise remains beyond AI's capabilities.
Despite a common belief that AI could displace many white-collar roles, these positions appear less vulnerable in the medium term due to the complexity of their core skills.
Low-wage occupations are less exposed but AI can usually perform their skills, making them more likely to be replaced and potentially exacerbating economic inequalities.
Paper also discussed policy implications of these findings, stressing importance of skills development, transparency, global labor policy cooperation to mitigate adverse impact.
